Lucubratrix

North Korea's Nuclear Test

So, I may be in the minority on this one, but my first reaction is--so what? It changes nothing. We learned nothing from it. I mean, the test could hardly have been a surprise, and we already knew that Kim Jong Il is crazy. So they have it, and they tested it--is it really any different from having it and not testing it? The U.S. respose, therefore, should not be dictated by the fact that the North Koreans tested (successfully or not) a nuclear device. The analogy that springs to mind is that of a little kid wanting attention while Mom and Dad are talking about grown-up things. The kid interrupts and whines with no success until, finally, tired of being ignored, he dumps grape juice all over the rug. The Dear Leader also wants people to pay attention to him. Not to stray too much into psychoanalysis, but when your (deceased) father is still constitutionally the Eternal President and the Great Leader, there's probably some desire to get some recognition for yourself.

So, what should the response be? Nothing, for the moment. Sanctions or a blockade wouldn't do any good. Such measures wouldn't have any effect on the leadership, and they would hurt the civilian population. Trying to negotiate with the North Koreans isn't likely to work, either, since there's not a whole lot of good faith on their part.

The real risk, of course, is that North Korea will escalate things to the point of threatening Seoul or Tokyo. Kim is a) unpredictable and b) probably extremely misinformed about world affairs, isolated by the syncophants around him. He may not realize just how isolated he already is, and that threats against South Korea or Japan would only increase his unpopularity. And it is, of course, dangerous to make the assumption that surely someone in North Korea must have an idea of what's going on and the ability to keep the situation under control. The question is one of capability--do the North Koreans have a nuclear weapon they can effectively deploy? Until we know that, we can't respond. If in fact North Korea does have a weapon, the U.S. and China need to be prepared for the possibility of military action: quick, surgical airstrikes.

There's obviously more to be said on the subject, so this is in no way intended to be an exhaustive evaluation of options for dealing with North Korea.

posted by Just Me @ 16:25